WAR AS A MEANS OF PEACE

I have never advocated war except as a means of peace.

Ulysses S. Grant

 

The new war began with bombing on  Monday evening at 9:26 PM EST.   Twenty sites around Raqqa, the northern Syrian  which serves as the capital for the Islamic State, were hit by air strikes from the U.S., Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates assisted by Qater.

 

These strikes included the use of B-1 Bombers, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, F-22 stealth Raptors, Predator Drones and Tomahawk Missiles fired from off shore aircraft carriers such as the USS Arleigh Burke.

 

The U.S. alone attacked positions in Eastern Syria held by the al-Qaeda affiliated Khorasan Front from Central Asia who were using these sites as staging areas for terrorist attacks on commercial passenger jets and the American homeland.

 

And so the war began and the question remains what is next?

 

First... almost every military person either serving or retired who has commented on the President's strategy has stated that ground troops are necessary to achieve the degradation and destruction of ISIS.  Therefore how fast will we get to this stage and whose boots will be on the ground?   

 

Second...where are the other Muslim and Arab nations in this fight?  The President and Secretary of State Kerry have done "yeoman's work" in getting Sunnis to fight other Sunnis but some big regional actors are missing.

 

Where is Egypt and where is Turkey which after all is a member of NATO?  Turkey has been non-committal and reluctant to engage ISIS which it has assisted in the past.  Turkey also has the largest standing army in the area but has said that its hesitancy was due to forty Turkish nationals including the Turkish Consul General being held captive in Mosul.  They have now been released and the elusive and slippery Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an ally of the Muslim Brotherhood, continues to dodge. 

 

Egypt is the most important Arab state with 80 million people.  President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is unsure where this coalition is heading.  He does not want to see Persian or Shiite influence increase in the Levant or the Magreb, nor does he wish to see the Muslim Brotherhood become a major regional player more than it is now, since he has outlawed them in Egypt.  Both Egypt and Turkey are bell weathers for how this is going to turn out.

 

Third...where is Iran, Assad and Hezbollah in this mix?  They have been allies since the revolt began and Assad deliberately let ISIS get strong to attack the other less fanatical members of the Syrian Free Army.  Rumors abound that the administration has been secretly negotiating with the Rouani government for assistance with ISIS who hates Shiites as apostates and executes them upon capture.  The Iranians have publicly stated that they turned down a deal with the U.S. which the U.S. said never happened.  The great fear is that there will be a trade off for Iranian ground troops giving Tehran nuclear capability for "peaceful purposes".and thereby leaving Israel and the coalition in the lurch.  Or perhaps this is the Byzantine  chess game that the west must play to rid the planet of a scourge from Hell. 

 

 If the Iranian scenario should be realized then the probability of a Shia-Sunni sectarian war will be ratcheted up immeasurably.  Likewise an Apocalyptic conflict between Israel and Iran and whoever else would be almost inevitable.

 

Assad is yet another dilemma.  The most cohesive army in the field buoyed by Hezbollah and the IRGC or the Pasdaran belongs to him along with chemical WMDs he didn't give up.  Obama gave his government a heads up before the attacks began which made Russia incensed because permission wasn't requested.  The Assad government nevertheless merely said they were for the attacks.  Where this is going no one knows but you can be sure that in part Assad strange  and under reported role as protectors of Christians and other minorities will surface in an attempt by one party or the other to rehabilitate his image.  Watch "TYRANT" next season to see the end result. 

 

Fourth...what will be the ISIS and al-Qaeda responses to this war?   Will we see a flurry of savage beheadings or worse?  Will ISIS follow the example of Hamas as some are already suggesting, and hide amongst the civilian population making "collateral damage" morally unacceptable?   Will we see vicious terrorist attacks both planned and of the "Lone Wolf" type at home and abroad?  Will we see WMD attacks in  our cities?  Or will we see all of the above? 

 

Fifth...what will be the role of Europe and the western democracies in fighting ISIS?  France and Australia seem committed but everyone else is mumbling.  This is an existential threat to them in particular or are they cowed by the non assimilated growing Muslim enclaves  they have allowed to take root in their countries?

 

Sixth...what will the  800 pound bear and dragon  do about this fight?  Both Russia and China have radical Muslim problems of their own but undermining the U.S. in the eyes of the Islamic world or the world in general may be too much of an enticement for them to pass up.  Russia is enlarging its Black Sea Fleet  and China is building a blue water navy to challenge the U.S. in the western Pacific.  Both make bellicose actions towards the U.S. or its allies.  They may think that this will tie down America for a generation and they will fill the vacuum left behind. 

 

In the coming days, weeks and months the answers to these questions will become clear.  We will see if Europe and the rest of the West will step up and shoulder their moral responsibility.  This is the President's "neo-con" moment.  His actions are supported more passionately by conservatives than by progressives.  War, after all is bad for the climate. 

 

This is a man who did not want to return to the region in war but instead in peace but the fate of the civilized world now hangs in the balance. For our part we all have to move past our emotional and ideological battlements and unite as we did during WWII.  This war after all has the same clarity as that one.  ISIS is the stuff of a Stephen King nightmare.  Good has never been more clear and evil has never been more vivid. 

 

The future will be time enough when reasoned criticism will be appropriate.  Now is not that time.  Americans are in harm's way and the nation must rally to them and the only Commander-in-Chief  we all have.

 

ERLANDSSON

 

BROADCAST PRIOR TO THE PRESIDENT'S UN SPEECH